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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.