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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."